Who'll be Running McCain's Foreign Policy?

In an election where foreign policy was expected to play an important role before the economy became a central issue, it is interesting to speculate on the individuals who will be involved in the national security/foreign policy apparatus, depending on which candidate wins. In this posting, I intend to look at some of the likely contenders for the positions of Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense and National Security Advisor in both John McCain and Barack Obama's potential cabinets

In many respects, John McCain has a harder task. Given that so much of the George W. Bush national security team has been discredited by the conduct of the Iraq War, he cannot afford to retain many in their current positions. However, this means looking at either bringing in outsiders, or going back sixteen years to the administration of Bush Senior, and picking individuals who were second-tier at the time. The danger of either course is that it either brings in candidates with little experience, or who are too old and rooted in a supposed Cold War mentality.

The major candidate for retention is probably Bob Gates at the Pentagon. McCain was an outspoken critic of Donald Rumsfeld long before it was fashionable, and Gates has been reasonably successful in his job, and enjoys bipartisan support in the Senate. In addition, his strong record in the first Bush administration both toughens up his resume and gives him a reputation independent of that of George W. Bush. Alternatively, McCain could go for someone like Joe Lieberman, in an attempt to bolster his cross-party credentials, or potentially someone within the military.

However, the most likely position to be filled by a military man is probably that of National Security Advisor, which has been filled by several military men in its history. The most likely candidate for this is probably retired Army General Jack Keane. Keane was, alongside McCain, one of the early advocates of the surge, and has worked closely with General David Petraeus in bringing it to fruition. In addition, it was a 2006 report by Keane and Frederick Kagan that laid out the theoretical framework for the surge, so he can claim a good deal of the credit for it success. Other candidates include Petraeus himslef, retired Army General Eric Shinseki, and John Negroponte, currently Deputy Secretary of State and former Ambassador to Iraq.

Negroponte is also a possibility to go upstairs to become Secretary of State. His length of experience, particularly in the Middle East, would certainly qualify him for the job. However, at the same time, his human rights record while ambassador to Honduras in the 1980s was somewhat dodgy, and his ties to the current administration, as well as the fact that he oversaw Iraq's descent into chaos, may mitigate against him. A more interesting candidate would be Negroponte's successor as Ambassador to Iraq and then the UN, Zalmay Khalilzad. Khalilzad has a wealth of experience in the Middle East, having been Ambassador to both Iraq and Afghanistan after the overthrow of the regimes there. More importantly, he is Afghan-born, and is a Sunni Muslim. The symbolism of appointing such an individual to the top diplomatic post on the planet should not be underestimated.