How much difference will the War make?

Just over a year ago, as violence in Iraq persisted at high levels, the major question pundits were asking was which major Republican candidate would be the first to break ranks and call for a withdrawal from Iraq. If the GOP were to have a chance in the election, it looked like they would have to abase themselves before the world and break with the Bush line. John McCain, the candidate deemed least likely to change his opinion, seemed sunk.

Since then, massive security gains have made McCain's opinions, that the USA went with far too few troops from day one, look prescient. As a result, he has managed to claw back a lot of the respect the Republicans lost in national security.

Barack Obama, too, has benefited hugely from the war. By being on record as opposing it from the beginning, and commenting that it would commit the US for "an undetermined time, an undetermined cost, and with undetermined consequences", he was able to claim that he was anti-war from the start. This proved hugely effective in the primary season, where his main rival, Hillary Clinton, had been a strong supporter of the war, and had initially voted for it. As a result, she was faced with a choice of continuing to support a deeply unpopular war or admitting that she was completely in error from the start.

However, at the moment, as the situation on the ground continues to improve, the war has faded from public consciousness next to issues such as the economy. In one sense, this benefits both candidates. John McCain can take some credit for arguing for the surge, and his withdrawal plans are currently more popular than Obama's. On the other hand, Obama has always believed that the war was not worth fighting in the first place, a position that many Americans have come to believe.

As a result, the war undoubtedly helped both candidates in their primaries. However, at the moment, the improvements in the situation have greatly benefited McCain, by pushing Iraq out of the spotlight, thereby negating Obama's advantage from opposing the war all along. However, at the same time, McCain similarly has been unable to fully capitalise on the benefits of the surge. In addition, both candidate's plans for withdrawal are now nearly identical, thereby pushing Iraq further into the background.

On balance, the improving situation in Iraq may well have put McCain where he is now. He could not, having supported the war all along, have broken ranks at the last minute, and escaped with his political reputation intact. Similarly, by pushing the war into the background, McCain has at least managed to sweep his own unswerving support for the war under the carpet, at a time when most people just want it to be over.