Obama's abortion gambit

A recent ad by the Obama campaign, running in seven states, claims that, if elected, John McCain will ban abortion on demand. While this is a familiar theme in American politics, there are two major pitfalls in running this ad in this campaign.

Firstly, it's simply not true. There are two ways that a McCain presidency could seek to restrict abortion rights. They could pass a constitutional amendment forbidding it, or they could get the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v Wade, the 1973 judgement that made abortion on demand legal throughout the United States.

Neither is likely to happen. As it stands, in any revisiting of Roe, the Supreme court, based on previous statements and judicial histories, would vote at least 5-4 to uphold the status quo. While it is true that some of the current pro-choice judges may not be on the court for long (John Paul Stevens is 88, and the others are all in their 70s), at the same time, any replacement will require the approval of the US Senate. Barring a political earthquake, the Democrats will, regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election, increase their majority in the Senate, and, given their history of using Roe as a litmus test for determining suitability for nomination, it is nearly impossible that an anti-abortion judge would be appointed during the first term of a McCain presidency, and highly unlikely that the make-up of the Senate would shift enough in the second term.

The second method, by constititutional amendment, is even harder. In order to get an amendment even proposed, two-thirds of both houses must agree on it. In order to get it passed, 38 of the 50 states would have to back it. The likelihood of either happening is so miniscule as to not be worth thinking about.

The other danger for Obama is that playing abortion politics may backfire. Firstly, the voters who he is trying to reach, namely pro-choice women who voted for Hillary and may now be drawn towards Sarah Palin, are going to be well aware of McCain's views on abortion. When a voter uses abortion as a litmus test, they will generally vote Democrat if they are pro-choice. Secondly, it will bring Obama's own abortion record into question. Obama is militantly pro-choice, and has a spotless record among abortion advocacy groups. While McCain has always been perceived as lukewarm in one direction, Obama is a clear partisan on the other. This plays into the McCain camp's hands. The religious right, whom McCain is still trying to swing fully behind his presidency, may be spurred into action by the idea of one of the most pro-choice candidates in history getting into the White House. In addition, only a minority of Americans support unrestricted abortion rights as they are now. By making abortion a central issue, Obama may be driving away more people than he brings back.