McCain's religious dilemma

There is little love lost between John McCain and the evangelical right. When, in 2000, he was deemed unsympathetic to them, the retaliated firstly by enthusiastically taking part in the smear campaign run by the Bush team, and then by voting in droves for George W Bush. Unfortunately for him, if the religious right can't be gotten out to vote for McCain in November, then Barack Obama will become the 44th president of the United States of America.

While he has a strong conservative legislative record on religious issues, McCain never seems to be comfortable talking about religion. Unlike Obama, who exudes easy confidence when dealing with issues of his faith, McCain tends to be reserved about it, and with good reason.

The problem that the religious right have with McCain is his character. Aside from his reticence in matters of faith, there is the fact that he is divorced, and was seeing his second wife while still married to his first. While he says the things the evangelicals want to hear in areas such as abortion, gay rights and religion in schools, there is always the impression that he doesn't fully support his own positions. In addition, some of his positions, notably on global warming, run contrary to the broad opinion on the right.

As a result, unlike George W. Bush, John McCain will have to work to get the evangelicals out to vote. As the core of the Republican party, their support is vital, and they are doubly important in swing states such as Florida or Ohio, where they are present in considerable numbers. They are not people who would naturally vote for a Goldwater-esque conservative like McCain. Therefore, expect the McCain camp to put out as many ads as possible stressing their candidate's religious credentials.

This, however, also carries risks, particularly among the other group that McCain must target: Independents. A slim majority of Americans now think that religion and politics should be kept separate, and with Barack Obama, a candidate who has a record of attracting independents to his banner, as his opponent, McCain cannot afford to alienate independents by taking too religious a line.

This is not to say that McCain doesn't have certain advantages with the religious right. Firstly, he is a genuine war hero, who spent five years in a POW camp in North Vietnam. He has, in spite of his lacklustre rhetoric, a solid conservative record. Perhaps most importantly, his opponent's views are extremely liberal, by American standards. While the religious right may not vote for McCain, they may vote against Obama. The big danger for McCain, however, is that they may not vote at all.