Sarah Palin: 8 Days Later

It is now eight days since John McCain dropped a political bombshell by picking Sarah Palin, the little-known governor of Alaska, to be his running mate. In that time, an already exciting race has reached near fever pitch, as people try to come to terms with what McCain's decision means to the election outcome.

In the short term, there is no doubt that it was an excellent tactical move. For the first time in the race, the Republican ticket is now the centre of attention. It was telling that, only a week after Barack Obama managed to smash the viewing ratings for a political speech, McCain managed to draw even more viewers.

In addition, the choice McCain made has managed to bring the relgious right back onside for the moment. This is partially due to Ms Palin's character, and also because of fears on the right that McCain might bolster his maverick credentials by picking a moderate such as Tom Ridge or worse, Joe Lieberman. The fact that she is a woman may also encourage disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters to switch sides, though Palin's views on issues such as abortion mean that it is unlikely they would break ranks in sufficient numbers to make a difference. However, the image Palin projects, of a working mom with strong family values, stands as a useful counterpoint to McCain, who is twice married, and whose children are all too old to be much use for photoshoots.

However, there are a number of problems with Sarah Palin that may yet turn her into a liability. Two of these are relatively trivial. The fact that her daughter is pregnant at 17 is ironic, given Palin's strong pro-abstinence stance, but unlikely to make much difference. It may even be a boost, giving Palin a chance to show her pro-life views, and generating a sense of empathy among parents who share similar worries about their children. Similarly, it doesn't particularly matter whether or not Palin was ever involved in the Alaska Independence Party. It is not in the Democrats' interest to make this election about who is more patriotic, as John McCain easily beats Barack Obama by most markers in that department.

More serious are the impropriety allegations hanging over her head. Essentially, it appears that Palin may have intervened to have her brother-in-law fired from his position as a State Trooper after he divorced her sister. While not a hugely serious accusation, it would harm the McCain campaign should it emerge that she acted improperly, particularly as the investigation is due to conclude in October, shortly before polling day.

Perhaps the biggest danger in picking Sarah Palin is her lack of experience. She has been governor for only two years, and prior to that was a small-town mayor. This both undercuts the McCain camp's argument that Obama lacks the experience to be President, but also brings McCain's age back into the centre stage. After all, should McCain die or become incapacitated, Palin will be president, and if Obama lacks sufficient experience, she has almost none, particularly in terms of national rather than local affairs.

Part of the reason McCain picked Palin was the lack of better candidates. Tom Ridge and Joe Lieberman are both pro-choice, and therefore anathema to the right. Mitt Romney is a Mormon, and is also extremely rich, and was therefore both a liability with the right and the working class. Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota, while solid in most areas, would simply not be able to wrest the agenda away from the Democrats. As a result, the realities of the situation conspired to force McCain to gamble on Palin. Whether or not it will pay off remains to be seen.