The Electoral Map Shifts

One of the most telling moments in the election so far was when John McCain shut down his campaign in Michigan. The state had been carried by John Kerry by a margin of only 3 points in 2004, and it had been widely targeted by the McCain camp as a possible insurance policy against a defeat in Ohio. However, as the campaign wore on, it became clear that the state was going to remain blue, and resources had to be shifted to counter Barack Obama's increasing inroads in traditionally Republican states.

As a result, John McCain's strategy now hinges on defending all the states that George Bush won in 2004, and targeting a few potentially vulnerable Democratic ones. Only four states, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania fall into this category, and of these, only Pennsylvania is big enough to offset the loss of Ohio or Florida, both of which look to be a challenge for the Republicans to hold. In addition, in all of the above states, Barack Obama is holding a reasonable lead at the moment.

The Obama camp started out with grand ideas about redrawing the electoral map, making headway into the South, and turning traditionally red states like Georgia into battlefields. While this has not quite been achieved, there is no doubt that McCain will have to defend a lot of states that were previously thought safe.

At this point, there is a strong chance that Iowa and New Mexico, which voted for Bush in 2004, will fall to the Democrats. This puts Barack Obama on 264 Electoral College votes, tantalisingly close to the 270 he needs to be elected. To get the extra six he needs, Obama has plenty of options. He could flip traditional swing states such as Ohio or Florida, either of which would put him in the White House even without Iowa and New Mexico. Alternatively, a gaggle of states have been put in play by John McCain's recent slump in the polls. Virginia, which hasn't voted for a Democratic candidate since 1964, or Missouri, which has been regarded as a bellweather state for decades, would both fall into this category. Virginia, in particular, has been trending Democratic in recent years. It's governor, Tim Kaine, is a Democrat, as is one of its senators, Jim Webb. In addition, when Republican senator John Warner steps down this year, his most likely successor will be a Democrat, Mark Warner (no relation).

Perhaps the biggest indicator of the scale of the swing towards Obama is that the McCain campaign is now on the defensive in North Carolina, a Deep South state which hasn't voted Democrat since the days of segregation. In addition, recent appearances by the candidates in Republican strongholds like Indiana and West Virginia suggest that McCain's campaign has serious worries about their vulnerability, and there is a genuine fear among Republicans that they could be trounced in this election, and reduced to a rump of safe states in the Deep South and the Midwest, making a 2012 comeback a difficult prospect.

John McCain faces a daunting task. Assuming that Iowa and New Mexico fall to Obama, he cannot lose a single other state. Given the current political climate, the idea of him holding onto all of Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, and West Virginia borders on the miraculous. Unfortunately, he has no choice but to try.